The report, “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,” authored by Mauro Cazzaniga, Florence Jaumotte, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Augustus J. Panton, Carlo Pizzinelli, Emma Rockall, and Marina M. Tavares, and published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2024, provides an in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence’s (AI) potential impact on the global labor market. It underscores AI’s capacity to significantly reshape the economy, particularly through its influence on labor markets, where it presents both opportunities for productivity enhancement and challenges related to job displacement and inequality.
The document reveals that approximately 40% of global employment is vulnerable to AI disruptions, with advanced economies at a higher risk due to their employment structure heavily concentrated in cognitive-intensive jobs. It introduces a conceptual framework to evaluate jobs based on their exposure to AI and the potential for AI to complement rather than substitute for human labor. Advanced economies have a larger portion of jobs that could benefit from AI, suggesting potential productivity gains. However, the transition also entails significant risks, especially for workers in roles susceptible to automation.
The analysis also highlights disparities within countries, noting that women and college-educated individuals are more exposed to AI but also potentially stand to benefit more from its advancements. In contrast, older workers might find it more challenging to adapt to AI-induced changes.
Addressing AI-induced labor market shifts requires comprehensive policy measures. Advanced economies are advised to focus on regulatory adjustments and labor reallocation support, while emerging market and developing economies should prioritize digital infrastructure development and digital skills enhancement.
This report contributes to the ongoing debate on AI’s role in the future of work by providing evidence-based insights into how AI might transform labor markets across different economies. It also outlines the necessity for targeted policy interventions to harness AI’s potential while mitigating its adverse effects on employment and income inequality.
You can read the full report here.
